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Video :: The Martingale :: A Losing Strategy for Gamblers & Negotiators

Also known as the “Double Down” Strategy, the Martingale is a betting strategy involving doubling the bet after each loss. In negotiations, the ‘double-down’ strategy is often employed as an ‘intimidation tactic’ using reckless maneuvers, bluster and a rapid escalation of the stakes to compel the other side to comply. In this video I explain the flaws in the Martingale Strategy though blackjack memory from teenage years. Subscribe to my YouTube Channel for more useful negotiation content and follow me @eiriktheexpert on Instagram!

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Back by Popular Demand! NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | September 13-15, 2022 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is September 13-15 from 10AM-3PM.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively bringing deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • Registration can be done through the REBNY website at https://bit.ly/NegotiationCourseSeptember2022
  • The investment for this seminar is $349 but a $50 discount is offered by REBNY making it $299 for REBNY Members! Registration includes the CNE® designation, a course manual, and all post-class materials. There is no processing fee for the designation and NO annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Brown Harris Stevens in NYC (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate), a featured podcaster and panelist, and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • Upon completion of the course you will earn 12 Elective Continuing Education Credits if you are licensed in the state of New York.

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE ONLINE seminars and why every agent should have this skillset. I look forward to seeing you in class!


Eirik

Instagram: @EiriktheExpert

New Vlog :: Understanding Mortgage Interest Rates & Amortization Factors

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If you are wondering how the rising interest rates affect your specific purchase plan, this video is a MUST VIEW! It is worth understanding your mortgage payment on a deeper level, so you can make an informed decision regarding your dream to buy a new home.

NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | June 7-9, 2022 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

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My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is June 7-9 from 10AM-3PM.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively bringing deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • Registration can be done through the REBNY website at https://bit.ly/NegotiationCourseJune2022
  • The investment for this seminar is $349 but a $50 discount is offered by REBNY making it $299 for REBNY Members! Registration includes the CNE® designation, a course manual, and all post-class materials. There is no processing fee for the designation and NO annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Brown Harris Stevens in NYC (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate), a featured podcaster and panelist, and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • Upon completion of the course you will earn 12 Elective Continuing Education Credits if you are licensed in the state of New York.

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE ONLINE seminars and why every agent should have this skillset. I look forward to seeing you in class!


Eirik

Instagram: @EiriktheExpert

Go To The Balcony

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I hear this statement often from my coaching clients often, “Eirik, my client is irrational and unreasonable. I can’t force my client to do what I want. I don’t control their behavior.” To that I say, “You’re absolutely right. You cannot control your client — and you certainly can’t control the other side — but you can INFLUENCE them. You can PERSUADE them.” But, in order to influence or persuade anyone you have to be able to CONTROL yourself. As William Ury says, Go to the Balcony!

When the other person says no, takes a stand, or takes an aggressive position, we often respond with our own stand (positional bargaining). We dig in, fight back with a counter-attack, or we just shut down or give in. Instead of going with your knee-jerk, emotional reaction, follow Ury’s advice and “go to the balcony”. Suspend your reaction and give yourself a moment to strategize and plan an appropriate response by looking at the situation from a different vantage point. One where you are not “on the stage”, in the middle of the action, but above it with a view of where everyone is standing.

Going to the balcony will allow you to focus on interests, needs, and wants, rather than positions or stands.

Don’t react: Go to the balcony.

You Know WHAT to Say. But HOW?

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There is a great Mae West quote that has become widely known, “It’s not what you say, but how you say it!”

It seems so simple and straightforward, right? Wrong. So often in life, we just assume the other person will infer our intention, meaning and empathy – or we rely on the trust or rapport we have with that person to work like a pain killer. How you say it is paramount. That includes your choice of words, your tone of voice, your body language, facial expressions, eye contact, the empathetic and active listening skills that come before you open your mouth, and the environment and timing of your message. 

Think of the last time you needed to have a conversation with a seller about dropping price, or with a purchaser about offering over the ask in a highest & best scenario. So much more important that what you say to that client in that moment is how, when, who, and why. Take a step back and look at the situation from their shoes, understand the emotional impact of what you are about to say, be empathetic, and keep focused on your ultimate goal coming out of that conversation. What do you want to happen and how does that best serve your client’s interest? You will find you are far more successful in gaining compliance, coming to agreement, and maintaining trust – making all subsequent conversations much easier as well. 

Another brilliant woman, Maya Angelou, said it even better than Mae West. “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but  people will never forget how you made them feel.”

Real Estate Imagery: A ‘Rock’ and a Hard Place

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It always amazes me how quickly the market turns, and what happens to renters and buyers as they watch the bottom disappear behind them in the rearview mirror.

A perfect recent example of this is the New York City rental market, which quickly went from high inventory, drastically reduced prices, and incentives galore in the Spring of 2021, to a dearth of inventory, dwindling free rent, and over-compensated price increases only a few months later. Timing the bottom of the rental market in 2021 was virtually impossible. For renters waiting on the sidelines, it just came and went like a passing bullet train.

At the risk of presuming too much about you – my audience – I am going to share a cocktail metaphor to help explain the turn of a market. Hopefully, this humorous bit of imagery will encourage you to think twice about attempting to “time” the bottom of the rental or sales markets, rather than taking advantage of price flexibility, loss aversion, market uncertainty, and less competition with a more aggressive strategy or by gathering more information.

Here goes…

Imagine a man sitting at the bar, sipping his favorite “on the rocks” cocktail. Maybe it’s a Gimlet with a lime wedge garnish or a Mojito with a mint sprig on a hot summer day – or a Manhattan or Martini while he waits for a quiet table in the corner.

Now, imagine you are one of the several lucky ice cubes dropped into his cocktail (yes, in this metaphor you are a ‘ROCK’!). Released from the grip of the ice tongs, you gracefully tumble to the bottom of the glass dancing and flipping with glee, eagerly anticipating being doused with alcohol and vegetation – fulfilling your lifelong ice cube dream.

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Your new, floor-to-ceiling windowed, loft-like container is served atop a fancy bar napkin to the patron, who greets you with a welcoming grin. He sips, he talks, he sips, he check out the results of the Olympic Artistic Swimming finals, he sips again. Eventually, after several swigs and nips, you and your fellow cubes begin to feel the naked liberation of fresh air and the faint glow of florescent bar signs, as you wade in a shallow pool of what little remains the alcohol. For a moment, you bask in the glow of your freedom, until you realize, your time is limited. You are warming to the temperature of the room and your environment is changing rapidly.

As you begin to melt, you do your best to resist the inevitable by clinging to the other ice cubes for comfort, and begin congeal into one unified ice rebellion at the bottom of the glass. Suddenly, the patron feels a craving for a cube of ice (and what little alcohol remains on it) to munch on, and turns toward the glass for satisfaction.

He brings the glass to his lips and angles it slightly, expecting you to slide effortlessly into his mouth, yet, nothing happens.

You hold tight, cling to the other cubes for strength, and grip the walls of the glass. He gives the glass a slightly steeper tilt, but still you will not free yourself from the group and slide to your destiny. You feel compelled to hold out just a little longer – you are waiting for the perfect time to leap. With another tilt of the glass, you curse a couple of weak water droplets and a lazy lime wedge slide by, but still you wait.

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Suddenly, he gives the glass a gentle shake and pitches the glass to a near-90-degree angle. The pure physics of the situation are against you. The cube next to you wriggles free of the congealed mass and begins to slide to the mouth of the glass. It’s at that precise moment, you and the rest of the melting cohort recognize your harsh reality – you cannot hold out any longer. It is time to go! You panic, release your hold on the bottom of the glass and plow forward as one, reckless, out of control, desperate mob. SMACK. You come to rest against his moustache hair and upper lip, completely missing his mouth.

Remember, you are rarely ever the only ‘rock’ in the glass. As the glass empties (inventory decreases) and environment changes (market or competition), the melting, congealing mass of ice (you and the other buyers or renters) – all waiting for the “right” moment to pounce – inevitably rush forward, desperately trying to win the race to the bottom. This momentum quickly shifts the power balance to the other side and the “bottom” disappears behind you.

Lesson: Instead of leaving your fortunes to physics or fate, control your path and your achieve your goal with a sound plan, strategy, preparation, persuasion, and negotiation.

My name is Eirik Davey-Gislason and I work in real estate in New York City. This blog is an opportunity for me to educate everyone who has a horror story or is on the verge of one. By sharing, preparing and advising my audience on what to expect, what is normal, what is right, and what is wrong, I hope to do my part to expose the wrong-doers and shape the future of this dysfunctional thing we call NYC Real Estate.

CERTIFIED NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | April 5-7, 2022 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

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Great news! Real Estate Negotiation Institute’s popular Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) – Core Concepts Course is STILL being offered live ONLINE.

My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is April 5th – 7th from 10AM-3PM.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively bringing deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • The total investment for this seminar is $349 and includes the CNE® designationThere is no processing fee for the designation and no annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • My next RENI Live! Online CNE-CC seminar is April 5-7, 2022. To register click here
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Brown Harris Stevens in NYC (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate) and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • For a limited time you can receive a $50 Early Registration discount ($299 after discount) using the Promo Code EDG-50

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE ONLINE seminars and why every agent should have this skillset. I look forward to seeing you in class!


Eirik

CERTIFIED NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | July 21 –July 23, 2021 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

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Great news! Real Estate Negotiation Institute’s popular Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) – Core Concepts Course is now offered live ONLINE.

My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is July 21-July 23 from 10AM-3PM.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively bringing deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • The total investment for this seminar is $299 and includes a student manual, post-class materials, and the CNE® designationThere is no processing fee for the designation and no annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • My next RENI Live! Online CNE-CC seminar is July 21-23, 2021. To register for the July 21-23 Course, click here
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Brown Harris Stevens in NYC (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate) and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • For a limited time you can receive a $50 discount ($249 after discount) using the Promo Code EDG21-CC50

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE seminars and why every agent should have this skillset. I look forward to seeing you in class!


Eirik

CERTIFIED NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | January 25-27, 2021 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

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Great news! Real Estate Negotiation Institute’s popular Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) – Core Concepts Course is now offered live ONLINE.

My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is January 25-27.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively negotiating deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • Our RENI Live! Online Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) designation course is approved for continuing education credit in New York State (12 hours, including the Agency Law requirement).
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • My next RENI Live! Online CNE-CC seminar starts next week, January 25-27. To register, click here
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Halstead Real Estate (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate) and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • The total investment for this seminar is $249 if you apply the $50 coupon code EDG20-CC50! There is no processing fee for the designation and no annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE seminars and why every agent should have this skill-set. I look forward to seeing you in class!

With Gratitude,
Eirik

The ‘Martingale’: A Losing Double-Down Strategy for Gamblers AND Negotiators

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When I was an 18-year old high school senior, my best friend Nate and I enjoyed jumping on the late night bus to a nearby casino with dollar signs in our eyes, adrenaline pumping through our veins and a $20 bankroll in our shallow pockets. Our goal was not incredibly ambitious – make $20 last as long as possible and guzzling our weight in free soda, before catching the last free bus back home.

Despite the sensorial (and financial) lure of the nickel slots, our game of choice was blackjack; more specifically, $2 minimum-bet blackjack. Our typical experience at the casino was relatively uneventful (and unprofitable), but one particular night will be forever seared into my memory…

After our grand entrance and classic strut around the smoke-filled hall to make our presence known (and to gather our courage), we found our table, donned our game faces, and sat down to play.

I carefully placed my crisp ‘Jackson’ on the green felt. The dealer shouted perfunctorily to the pit boss, “changing twenty” and handed me my chips. Just then, a woman sat down next to me with an awkward smile, changed $40, and placed her first bet of $2. With three $2 bets on the table – and a strange mixture of excitement and menthol cigarette smoke in the air – the dealer dealt the hand. I’ll save you the suspense of the moment – we all lost.

As the dealer called for our next bet Nate and I made our pitiful, frugal, but consistent $2 wager. The woman next to me, however, quickly doubled her bet to $4; and out came the cards. Spoiler alert, the dealer won again. Nate and I considered leaving to find a more friendly game, but we had just ordered another round of sodas and didn’t want to risk a longer wait for free caffeine so we stayed. The woman next to me showed no interest in leaving the cold table, and even followed her $4 loss with a bet of $8. That is when her betting strategy emerged – always double-down on loss, ALWAYS.

I have since come to know this strategy as the ‘Martingale’ – a betting system which originated in 18th century France – but more on that later. While the dealer shuffled the next shoe, the woman explained her strategy and defended it passionately as her ‘sure thing’.

“In order to win at blackjack, you have to follow the double-down rule on every loss. If you lose $2, you bet $4 on the next hand. If you lose the $4 hand, you bet $8 and so on. Just like the flip of a coin, the odds are that you will not lose multiple blackjack hands consecutively. Therefore, by doubling your bet each time you lose, you are statistically likely to recoup the money you lost on a series of smaller losses with one winning hand.”

The dealer tossed her the yellow ‘cut’ card, and we were back in the game. Having already lost $6 ($2 + $4), this is how the next three minutes of her life played out:

$8 bet: dealer wins…$16 bet: dealer wins…

Four hands of blackjack, $30 lost. Now, although $30 may not seem like much, it was clear that none of us were comfortable throwing away that kind of money in the matter of a few minutes (not to mention it was 1992!). More problematic, she was forced with a decision she was clearly not anticipating – continue following her system and place a $32 bet, or abandon the strategy and take the loss.

We were no longer dealing with $2 or $4 throwaway bets. Not to mention, her next bet of $32 wouldn’t even net her any money. It was a gamble for the chance to get back to ‘even’. Committed to the system – and left with $10 worth of chips – she nervously sifted through her purse and pulled out two more $20 bills. “Changing 40!”, barked the dealer. $32 went straight to her well-worn wager circle, and the other $8 joined her remaining $10 in the palm of her trembling hand. 

$32 bet: dealer wins

In one hand, she managed to more than doubled her losses to $62. Worse, she had a new dilemma. The table had a maximum bet of $50. Even if she wanted to, she could not properly execute her strategy without moving to a higher stakes table. But, since the system relies on the theory that you will eventually win if you keep doubling-down, she felt it a better choice to stay rather than start over somewhere else. There was absolutely no chance – even with a maximum bet of $50 – that she will recover the loss she has suffered in five short hands. Her best chance was a $12 loss with a $50 win, or a $112 loss if the dealer won for a sixth straight time.

I turned away and slammed another Coke as she dug back into her purse to search for $32. Ultimately, she was only able to find two $10 bills, which was all the money she had left to commit to her system. With her hands shaking wildly, she put the bills on the table. “Changing $20”, the dealer uttered in a low, concerned tone. The two ten dollar chips joined the $18 in her hand and she place it all – $38 – on the table. 

$38 bet: dealer wins

She broke down in tears. It was clear, this was money she could not afford to lose. I thought I was going to throw up. Five minutes – all gone. In fact, if dealer didn’t have to shuffle the shoe, change money, and wait for her to rifle through her purse, her $100 would’ve been gone in a less than two minutes. The only upside is that she didn’t have more money in her purse to place the $50 maximum bet. She paused for a moment (as though she was contemplating her next move), lifted her purse from her lap, stood and backed away from the table. Still sobbing and shaking she muttered, “What do I do? I can’t go home, my husband is going to kill me.”

Many unskilled competitive negotiators operate as if they are simply playing a ‘numbers game’ or a game of ‘chicken’ when dealing with the other party. When a negotiator ignores crucial components of a successful negotiation strategy such as building trust, the integration of the other party’s interests, and creation & exchange of value, they often rely on transactional, ego-driven, hard-bargaining tactics – dangerously similar to that of a gambler pushing harder with each hand expecting to eventually ‘hit a winner’.

In negotiations, the ‘double-down’ strategy is often employed as an ‘intimidation tactic’ using reckless maneuvers, bluster and a rapid escalation of the stakes to compel the other side to comply. When a negotiator utilizes a high risk/high reward strategy such as the Martingale, they (and the party they represent) must acknowledge and understand that the strategy gives rise to instability and mistrust, and triggers entrenchment, retreat, or – more likely – an abrupt ending, an empty purse, a lack of options and nowhere left to go.

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What are the flaws in the ‘Martingale’ system?

  • Like many such event in our lives the outcome of one hand of blackjack – as well as any information about the results of past bets – does not influence the following hand or help predict the results of future bets. Therefore, the expectation that the woman would eventually recover her loses by doubling-down on her last loss has no mathematical basis. One might argue that you can predict future cards – or behavior from your negotiating counterpart – as you work through a deck, but that probability all but disappears when you are dealing with a six-deck shoe – or a different counterpart in an unrelated negotiation.
  • The system breaks down when you adjust for the fact that gamblers – and the same goes for negotiators – do not possess infinite wealth (or options). If you follow the exponential growth of the next bet, most gamblers will eventually end up broke before being able to recover their losses. Or – in the case of my story – the gambler is forced to abandon the system on their final bet.
  • At some point, you reach the ‘maximum bet’. This is the downfall of many who negotiate like a gambler, and this is different from the idea of infinite wealth. The gambler – and negotiator – will start by escalating the stakes by doubling-down as though there is no ceiling to how far they can go. But, just like the table had a $50 maximum forcing the woman to abandon her system, negotiations have the ‘chilling effect’ if one side is pushed too far, or if their ‘anchor’ isn’t credible (think ‘low ball / high ball’). At some point the gambler reaches the maximum bet, whether you are playing a card game or negotiating a deal.
  • Like it or not, the game does end. Even if you want to keep going back to the ‘purse’ in order to continue doubling-down, the casino cuts you off, closes its doors or forces you on the last bus home. Similarly, negotiations eventually end when the other side walks away, gets fed up with your increased and unacceptable demands or – more likely – when you are removed from your position of ‘chief negotiator’. In fact, the Martingale negotiator becomes virtually powerless if the other side knows your days are numbered. They are more likely to call your bluff, wait you out, or exercise their power balance until you are receptive or replaced.

Danger: There is a Red Herring Tied to Your Anchor!

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Let’s talk about today in Presidential politics. Why? Because it has EVERYTHING to do with negotiation. Specifically, what happened today was a classic example of using ‘Anchoring’ as a hard-bargaining tactic and a quintessential ‘Red Herring’. For those of you who want to take him at face value – that his goal is to postpone the election or litigate the outcome – not so fast. He was throwing an ‘anchor’ and throwing us off the scent with a ‘Red Herring’, and we – as skilled negotiators who know how to call out hard-bargaining tactics – need to call it out for what it is.

So, what did he say? He suggested that we may need to delay the election and perhaps – if things don’t change – he may be ‘forced’ to litigate the results for months or ‘possibly years’. That is the ‘stand’ he is taking. That is his ‘anchor’. I will not allow the the election to take place – or I will not leave office – unless we address what?….that’s right. The ‘Red Herring’. The ‘Red Herring’ is mail-in ballots. It is intended to distract us using a baseless claim in hopes that we will take the bait and focus our attention for the next few months on the efficacy of mail-in ballots. It is nonsense, which is what a ‘Red Herring’ is by definition.

You see this, right?

So, what is he after? What is he REALLY trying to do. For that you need to put yourself in his shoes (as disgusting as that imagery might be) and ‘Think Double’. What does he want? What outcome would most benefit him? If you answer that, you know what his next step will be.

It is clear, looking at crumbling approval ratings and crashing poll numbers, Donald Trump knows his re-election chances are in jeopardy. It has been transparent for some time that his re-election strategy is one of riling his base to increase voter turnout, while suppressing turnout on the other side. He has certainly been on message regarding the former, and now he is after the latter.

He champions himself on being an expert negotiator, but sadly the opposite it true. He prides himself on not “giving away” his position or power in a negotiation, but his bluster and arrogance reveal everything he is trying to conceal. But, be that as it may, he is setting up his next negotiation. Not surprisingly, his gameplan is the same one he used when attempting to negotiate the RNC Convention in North Carolina amid the COVID-19 outbreak. The Strategy? Take an extreme position, threaten the other side with the worst case scenario, publicly attack them with personal insults and hope they ‘blink’ and give him what he wants. Guess what, the governor of N.C. didn’t ‘blink’. He forced Trump to bluff and ‘walk away’ when his BATNA was extremely weak. The result – he wasted time and money by moving the convention to FL, only to cancel it when the global pandemic reared its ugly head in his own backyard. If you ever want an example of what a failed negotiation looks like, look no further than this.

So, if past is prologue (and it ALWAYS is with Donald Trump), he will attempt to make a ‘deal’ with congress using his ‘Red Herring’ as a negotiation chip. I (Donald Trump) will allow you to go forward with the election as scheduled – and (depending on whether he is forced to make this concession) I agree to accept the outcome of the election no matter the outcome – if you agree to eliminate mail-in voting throughout the country.

Keep your eye on the prize, de-anchor when the anchor is not credible and – for the love of Pete – don’t fall for the ‘Red Herring’.

CERTIFIED NEGOTIATION EXPERT (CNE) – Core Concepts ONLINE | June 29 –July 1, 2020 |Eirik Davey-Gislason, Instructor

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Great news! Real Estate Negotiation Institute’s popular Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) – Core Concepts Course is now offered live ONLINE.

My next RENI Live! Online CNE-Core Concepts Seminar is June 29-July 1 from 10AM-3PM.

Your ability to negotiate effectively has never been more important – and successfully influencing others, building and maintaining trust-based relationships and creatively bringing deals to a close will determine your future and your clients’ success. Join Instructor Eirik Davey-Gislason for this valuable seminar and earn one of the most beneficial and sought-after designation in real estate – Certified Negotiation Expert, CNE®.

You can learn more about the CNE-Core Concepts Course here, and below are some key highlights:

  • Our RENI Live! Online Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE®) designation course is approved for continuing education credit in New York State (12 hours, including the Agency Law requirement).
  • Our course content is rooted in the principles and techniques taught at the some of the country’s premiere Negotiation programs including Harvard University, the Wharton School and Stanford University.
  • CNE-Core Concepts Topics Include: Value Proposition, the Psychology of Buying, Power Balance, Negotiation Styles and Strategies, Persuasion Principles, Dealing with Common Competitive Tactics, Collaborative Best Practices, and much more!
  • My next RENI Live! Online CNE-CC Course is June 29-July 1, 2020. To register, click here
  • Your Instructor, Eirik Davey-Gislason, is the CNE-CC and CNE-AC Instructor at REBNY, and a Licensed Associate Broker at Halstead Real Estate (Village Office). He is a Master Certified Negotiation Expert, a former Director of Sales & Development (Cooper & Cooper Real Estate) and a passionate, knowledgeable and dynamic speaker. You can learn more about Eirik here.
  • The total investment for this seminar is $299 and includes a student manual, post-class materials, CE credit and the CNE® designationThere is no processing fee for the designation and no annual fee to keep it. Once you earn it, it is yours for life!

I welcome the opportunity to speak to you about our RENI Live! CNE® seminars and why every agent should have this skill set. I look forward to seeing you in class!

With Gratitude,
Eirik